The 2023 VestMap Population Report, Part 1

The 2023 VestMap Population Report, Part 1

Which zip codes will experience the highest population growth from 2023 to 2027? 

In this article we will summarize the zip codes with the highest forecasted population growth in the United States, expressed as a compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

Population growth is uneven—even though a zip might be growing overall, specific blocks within that zip will grow faster than others. This is why when using population & demographics for evaluating commercial real estate it’s valuable to get even more granular than a zip code, and zoom in on the individual blocks. 

VestMap allows you to do this easily and quickly, click here to learn more.

2022-2027 Population: Compound Annual Growth Rate By Zip Code, United States (Esri)

CAGR City Zip Code
151.89 Durham 27709
18.53 Red Rock 85145
13.54 Picacho 85141
12.75 Sacramento 95837
12.41 Overland Park 66251
12.27 Aurora 80019
11.73 Port Saint Lucie 34987
10.81 Oracle 85623
10.07 Crandall 75114
9.59 Arlington 76005
9.55 Cheswold 19936
9.39 Saint Cloud 34773

Now, what if we’d like to compare that to the historical growth? To do that, we ask:

Which zip codes had the most population growth from 2020 to 2022?

As you can see, only Sacramento and Overland Park made it on both lists.

2020-2022 Population: Compound Annual Growth Rate (Esri)

CAGR City Zip Code
212.67 Miami 33101
148.22 Kansas City 64102
68.85 Overland Park 66251
50.05 Sacramento 95837
40.82 Evansville 47708
36.29 Saint Paul 55111
36.08 Dallas 75261
32.52 March Air Reserve Base 92518
32.29 Rancocas 08073
27.07 Palo Verde 92266
25.49 Gaithersburg 20899
23.76 Sloan 89054

Population growth usually benefits investors in the form of increased rental demand and appreciation that comes from buying in growing areas. 

To get a better picture of a location, it helps to layer in median incomes. 

Why use median incomes to evaluate real estate?

Increasing incomes are highly correlated with the so-called “path-of-progress” that investors are always looking for. The path of progress meaning areas that are on the upswing in terms of population, stores opening, new construction - and all of these things are usually accompanied by the average income of the residents going up - either because they are now making more money in a booming town, or they just moved from out of state and brought their W-2 with them. 

2022-2027 Median Household Income: Compound Annual Growth Rate (Esri), 2022 Total Population (Esri)

CAGR City Zip Code
73.62 Clarkedale 72325
35.78 Callicoon Center 12724
23.71 Springfield 53176
21.09 Stratford 98853
19.4 Wabash 72389
18.51 Greensboro 27412
16.5 Green Valley Lake 92341
15.15 Potrero 91963
14.87 Erie 16563
14.87 Lorado 25630
14.19 Paskenta 96074
14.19 Klickitat 98628
14.09 Sherman 38869
13.86 Crestline 66728
13.86 Mule Creek 88051
13.72 CA Hot Springs 93207
13.49 Posey 93260
13.48 Redrock 88055
13.4 Swanlake 83281
13.25 Los Angeles 90021

Looking at per-capita income growth can also be helpful, as you can see if we look at per-capita growth it is dominated by larger cities (not surprising since the highest earners tend to live in expensive cities and ther incomes tend to go up faster than places with a lower cost of living).

2022-2027 Per Capita Income Growth (Esri)

Which zip codes will experience the most Per-Capita income growth as a percentage of current year per capita income from 2022 -2027?

To counter this we can look at the relative growth incomes in 2022 as a percentage of the forecasted growth, which yields this list:

City Zip Code
Mauricetown 08329
Lee 04455
Winn 04495
Arivaca 85601
Richardton 58652
Sasabe 85633
Villa Grande 95486
Pioneertown 92268
Green Valley Lake 92341
Leesburg 08327

Population and demographic tools are an incredibly powerful way to understand locations and make better investing decisions. This data is small sample of what’s possible with VestMap - with VestMap you can get even more granular and target growth down to the block.

Click here to learn more.

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